Loonie at Multi-Decade Lows: Causes, Impacts, and Investment Opportunities

What’s Happening to the Canadian Dollar?

cad vs us dollar

The Canadian dollar, affectionately known as the loonie, has tumbled to levels not seen in decades. In early 2025, it fell below US$0.70, hitting its weakest value against the U.S. dollar since 2003 (Loonie drops to lowest level in two decades – BNN Bloomberg) (US dollar edges lower as China tariffs kick in | Reuters). For context, the all-time modern low for the loonie was about US$0.62 in January 2002 (History of the Canadian Dollar). Recent declines have brought it uncomfortably close to those multi-decade lows. Just one year ago, the loonie was worth about US$0.75, so it has lost roughly 8% of its value in a year ( Will the Weak Canadian Dollar Drive Inflation Higher? | Morningstar ) – a significant move for a major currency.

This isn’t the first slump Canadians have lived through. The loonie was similarly weak in early 2016 (briefly dipping under US$0.70) and during the 2008-09 financial crisis (We’ve reached a milestone. This is the lowest the Canadian dollar …). However, the current downturn is notable for its persistence and the mix of economic forces behind it. Let’s explore what’s driving the loonie’s slide and how it compares to past bouts of weakness.

Economic Factors Driving the Loonie’s Decline

A combination of domestic and international factors has created a perfect storm for the Canadian dollar’s depreciation. Key drivers include:

Historical Context: Today vs. Past Loonie Slumps

The current depreciation has prompted comparisons to previous weak spells for the Canadian dollar. How does today stack up against history?

  • Early 2000s Lows: The most notable comparison is the early 2000s. On January 21, 2002, the loonie hit an all-time low of just 61.79 US cents (History of the Canadian Dollar). Back then, Canada was running budget deficits and commodity prices were in the dumps – a recipe for a feeble currency. It took $1.62 CAD to buy $1 USD at that nadir (History of the Canadian Dollar). The current decline hasn’t (yet) reached that extreme, but forecasts suggest it’s in the ballpark. TD Bank economists have forecast a weak ~70 cent loonie in 2025, which “would be the lowest since 2002.” (The Weekly Bottom Line: Awaiting the Changing of the Guard – Action Forex) In fact, the loonie briefly touched ~$0.68–0.69 in recent trading, a level not consistently seen since the 2000–2002 period (US dollar edges lower as China tariffs kick in | Reuters).
  • Mid-1980s and 1990s: Before the 2000s, one has to go back to the 1980s to find similarly weak Canadian dollars. In February 1986, amid sky-high inflation and interest rates, the CAD bottomed around 69 US cents (History of the Canadian Dollar). The currency then strengthened in the 1990s (reaching ~89 cents in 1991) before sliding again in the late ‘90s. By 1998-2002, weaker commodities and emerging market crises pushed the loonie down a long, shallow slope culminating in the 2002 low (History of the Canadian Dollar). The current episode is evoking those past troughs, with the loonie once more stuck in the high-60s to low-70s U.S. cents range. It’s worth noting that in both the ‘80s and early 2000s, a surging U.S. dollar was a common factor – much as it is today.
  • 2015–2016 Oil Crash: A more recent parallel is the 2015 oil price crash. By January 2016, with oil plummeting below $30 a barrel, the loonie fell under $0.70 US, its weakest since 2003 (Canada’s dollar dips below 70 cents U.S. for first time since 2003). That dip was short-lived; the CAD recovered as oil prices rebounded and the global economy stabilized. Similarly, during the 2020 COVID shock, the loonie briefly sank (USD/CAD ~1.45 in March 2020) but bounced back within months. What’s different now is the sustained nature of the weakness. The loonie has been trending down for over a year, and the factors holding it down (interest rate gap, trade risks, etc.) could persist. Currency strategists note that about 2% worth of “risk premium” is currently priced into CAD due to trade war fears and other issues (A perfect storm for the Canadian dollar | articles | ING Think). That risk premium could fade if crises resolve – or grow if they escalate.

In summary, today’s loonie slump shares DNA with past episodes (strong USD, weak commodities, Canada-specific woes). It’s a multi-decade low point that reflects both immediate concerns and long-running challenges. Next, we’ll look at what this means for Canadians’ daily lives.

Impact on Everyday Canadians

A weaker Canadian dollar reverberates through the economy in ways that hit consumers’ wallets. Here are the main effects everyday Canadians are feeling:

In sum, a feeble loonie acts like a pay cut for Canadians when they spend internationally or buy imported goods. It can sneak through to grocery bills and travel budgets, although a soft economy and local sourcing blunt the impact for some expenses. Consumers are wise to watch the exchange rate, compare prices, and seek value where possible (e.g. supporting local products) until the currency situation improves.

Investment Strategies for a Weak Loonie

For investors, the loonie’s slump isn’t all bad news. In fact, a weak Canadian dollar can open up opportunities to protect your portfolio or even profit from the situation. Here’s a broad mix of strategies – spanning stocks, ETFs, commodities, and real estate – to consider, backed by expert insights:

  • Exporters and U.S.-Exposed Stocks: One way to play a weak currency is to invest in Canadian companies that benefit from that weakness. These tend to be firms that earn a large chunk of revenue in the U.S. or overseas, but report financial results in Canadian dollars. When the loonie falls, their USD earnings translate into more CAD on the books, giving profits a boost. For example, Manulife Financial (MFC), Canada’s big life insurer, derives substantial income from its U.S. subsidiary John Hancock. Those earnings are in USD, so as the CEO of Manulife might say, every U.S. dollar earned is now worth more loonies. In fact, when the loonie is lower, Manulife’s bottom line sees “extra dollars” upon conversion ( Four Canadian stocks to pick when the loonie falls | Morningstar ). Another example is Imperial Oil (IMO) – it sells oil priced in USD but incurs many costs in CAD, so a weaker domestic dollar means fatter margins ( Four Canadian stocks to pick when the loonie falls | Morningstar ). A Morningstar analysis noted Imperial’s revenues are in USD while costs are in CAD, resulting in stronger earnings when the loonie depreciates ( Four Canadian stocks to pick when the loonie falls | Morningstar ). Companies like these, with a healthy U.S. dollar exposure, stand to gain from a feeble CAD. Sectors to look at include Canadian banks and insurers with big U.S. operations, oil & gas producers, base metal miners, and industrial manufacturers that export a lot to the States. Tech and media companies that sell into the U.S. are also in this bucket. RBC Capital Markets recently highlighted that many TSX stocks – spanning technology, media, financials, healthcare, and industrials – get a revenue lift from a stronger USD (Weak loonie? These TSX stocks could gain strength, says RBC). As investors, you could consider an ETF or a basket of such companies. By owning quality Canadian firms with U.S.-heavy revenues, you effectively hedge yourself: what’s bad for the loonie might be good for these stocks’ earnings (and share prices) ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ) ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ). Caveat: be selective and focus on fundamentally solid companies, not just anyone with U.S. sales, since the broader economic weakness can still affect them in other ways.
  • U.S. Stocks and Global ETFs (Currency Diversification): Another straightforward strategy is holding investments denominated in U.S. dollars (or other strong currencies). If you’re a Canadian investor who owns U.S. stocks or an S&P 500 index fund, you’ve probably noticed the currency kicker enhancing your returns. When you eventually convert those U.S. investments back to CAD, you get more Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar than before. Morningstar explains that for individual Canadians, investments in U.S. securities will yield higher returns in CAD terms when the loonie is down – essentially “more bang for your buck” when converting back ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ). For example, suppose you held Apple stock or a Nasdaq ETF over the past year: even if the asset’s price was flat in USD, the drop in the CAD would give you roughly an 8% gain in CAD terms (mirroring the currency move). This can be a great hedge against domestic weakness. However, keep in mind the flip side: buying new U.S. assets now is more expensive for Canadians. A U.S. stock priced at $100 USD costs ~$145 CAD today versus ~$130 CAD a year ago ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ). So, consider a measured approach like dollar-cost averaging into foreign positions. If you expect the loonie to eventually recover, you might favor currency-hedged ETFs for U.S./global exposure (these ETFs strip out currency effects). If instead you think the loonie will stay weak or drop further, holding unhedged U.S. investments lets you capitalize on any additional CAD decline. In short, global diversification is prudent regardless, but in times of a weak home currency, it particularly cushions your portfolio. Many advisors suggest Canadians keep a sizeable chunk of equities in U.S. or international markets as a long-term hedge.
  • Gold and Commodities: Hard assets like gold are classic winners in a currency downturn. Gold tends to rise when the U.S. dollar is weak, but importantly for Canadians, even if gold’s USD price is flat, a weaker CAD means gold’s price in Canadian dollars goes up. In fact, gold in CAD often hits record highs when the loonie is slumping, preserving purchasing power. You can invest via physical bullion, gold ETFs, or gold mining stocks. Notably, Canadian gold miners with operations in Canada enjoy a double benefit: their costs (wages, electricity, etc.) are in CAD, while they sell gold at USD prices. RBC analysts pointed out that key beneficiaries of a weak loonie include miners like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), IAMGOLD (IMG), and New Gold (NGD) – all of which have a large share of assets and production in Canada (Who benefits most from a weak CAD? By Investing.com). These companies can see profit margins swell when the loonie dives. Beyond gold, other commodities can serve as a hedge too. Oil, for instance, is tricky – a weak loonie often coincides with low oil prices (hurting energy producers) (Canadian dollar extends losing streak as oil prices slide | Reuters), but if you expect oil prices to rebound, Canadian energy stocks could have upside and any gains would be magnified in CAD terms. Base metals and bulk commodities (like copper, zinc, lumber) are similarly tied to global prices in USD. An ETF of commodity producers or a resource index could be a way to get broad exposure. Finally, don’t forget alternative stores of value: some Canadians turn to assets like silver, or even cryptocurrencies, as unconventional hedges against currency weakness and inflation. Those come with high volatility, so size any positions according to your risk tolerance.
  • Real Estate (Domestic and International): Real estate can be impacted by currency movements in a few ways. Domestically, a weaker loonie may actually boost certain real estate markets: Canadian property becomes cheaper for foreign buyers. For someone holding U.S. dollars, that Toronto condo or Vancouver house now looks ~30% “on sale” compared to a few years ago. A weakened Canadian dollar can thus “create opportunities for savings” for foreign investors in Canadian real estate (Cross-Border Real Estate Investing in BC: Navigating Currency …). We might see increased interest from international buyers or expats looking to purchase homes, commercial properties, or even entire companies in Canada (foreign takeovers become cheaper in USD terms). This influx can put upward pressure on property prices in hotspot cities, which benefits current owners and landlords (though it can frustrate local buyers). If you already own Canadian real estate, the currency drop may indirectly support your asset value, especially in markets attractive to global capital. On the other hand, the weak loonie is bad news for new construction costs – many building materials and machinery are imported, so developers pay more, possibly slowing down projects and keeping housing supply tight (Canadian Loonie Forecast To Remain Weak, Bad News For Home …). As an investor, you could look at REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) that stand to gain in this environment. For instance, Canadian REITs that own high-quality properties could see foreign investment interest rise. Some REITs and property companies also have U.S. and international holdings, meaning their income is in USD. When they repatriate that income, it converts to more CAD, potentially boosting dividends. If you expect the loonie to remain weak, tilting some real estate exposure towards those with USD assets (or even owning U.S. real estate directly, if feasible) can be advantageous. Be mindful though: if the loonie eventually strengthens, the dynamic reverses. So this is about taking advantage of current conditions, but staying flexible as things change.
  • Holding Some U.S. Dollars & Other Assets: Beyond traditional investments, remember that cash is an asset too – specifically, cash in different currencies. If you frequently travel or spend in the U.S., consider keeping a U.S. dollar bank account or using a USD credit card for U.S. purchases ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ). This can lock in a rate and shield you from further CAD declines (and save on conversion fees each time). Some Canadians even buy and hold a lump of U.S. dollars when the rate is favorable, as a long-term hedge for future travel or tuition for kids studying abroad. Another strategy is foreign currency GICs or bonds – for example, a U.S. dollar GIC at a Canadian bank, or U.S. Treasury bonds held in an RRSP. These will pay interest in USD and appreciate against CAD if the loonie falls more. Just be aware of currency risk: should the loonie recover strongly, the value of those USD holdings in CAD would drop. Finally, for those inclined, you can use forex hedging tools (like purchasing call options on the USD or ETFs that inverse-track the CAD) to directly bet on or against the currency. Such tactics are more advanced and not necessary for most long-term investors. The general principle is diversification. The weak loonie reminds us not to put all our eggs in one currency basket. By spreading investments globally and including assets that zig when the CAD zags, you can insulate your wealth from Canada-specific troubles. As Morningstar put it, Canadians should “strategically leverage [the loonie’s] fluctuations” ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ) and remain aware that a weak dollar often reflects broader issues like sluggish growth that need navigating.

Final Thoughts

The Canadian dollar’s multi-decade low is a sign of the economic times. It reflects legitimate challenges — from interest rate differentials and trade fears to commodity slumps and competitiveness issues. These forces have converged to push the loonie down sharply. For the average Canadian, that reality means a bit of a financial squeeze: higher prices on many imports, more costly vacations abroad, but also an uptick in American tourists enjoying Canada’s relative bargain. In other words, it’s a mixed bag with winners and losers.

For investors, the key is to stay informed and proactive. Currency swings can significantly impact your portfolio’s real returns. The current weak-loonie environment offers opportunities to reposition: whether it’s benefiting from stocks that thrive with a strong USD ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ), adding commodities as a hedge, or simply rebalancing to have more international exposure. Those moves can not only protect you today but set you up for long-term gains if and when the loonie eventually rebounds.

No one knows exactly how long the Canadian dollar will languish at these lows. It could regain strength if some of the clouds (trade tensions, economic soft patches) clear up. In the meantime, by understanding the causes of the loonie’s slide and its consequences on daily life, you can make savvy decisions. History shows that currencies run in cycles – and prudent investors adapt to both the peaks and the valleys. Right now we’re in a valley, but with the right strategy, you can not only endure it but potentially profit from the weak loonie until the trend turns upward.

Disclaimer: For Entertainment Purposes Only

Investments.ca is not a registered investment, legal, or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. All information provided on this website is for entertainment and general informational purposes. We encourage you to consult with a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or legal counsel before making any financial decisions.

Sources:

  1. Bank of Canada – Factors behind the CAD decline (BoC Monetary Policy Report, Jan 2025) (Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate – Bank of Canada)
  2. Action Forex – Canadian outlook and currency forecast (Jan 2025) (The Weekly Bottom Line: Awaiting the Changing of the Guard – Action Forex)
  3. Morningstar – “Why is the Canadian Dollar Falling?” (Jan 2025) ( Will the Weak Canadian Dollar Drive Inflation Higher? | Morningstar )
  4. Reuters – CAD at weakest since 2003 amid tariff threats (Feb 2025) (US dollar edges lower as China tariffs kick in | Reuters)
  5. CC&L Strategic Exchange – History of the Canadian Dollar (May 2024) (History of the Canadian Dollar) (History of the Canadian Dollar)
  6. ING Think – A Perfect Storm for the Canadian Dollar (Dec 2024) (A perfect storm for the Canadian dollar | articles | ING Think) (A perfect storm for the Canadian dollar | articles | ING Think)
  7. Reuters – Commodity currency pressures (July & Oct 2024) (Canadian dollar extends losing streak as oil prices slide | Reuters) (Canadian dollar weakens to 7-week low as oil tumbles | Reuters)
  8. CityNews – Canadians and Americans react to plunging loonie (Jan 2025) (Are Americans benefiting off weak Canadian dollar?) (Are Americans benefiting off weak Canadian dollar?)
  9. Global News – Travel plans changing on weak dollar & tariffs (Jan 2025) (Cancelling that U.S. trip will cost you. For some, the hit is worth it – National | Globalnews.ca) (Cancelling that U.S. trip will cost you. For some, the hit is worth it – National | Globalnews.ca)
  10. Morningstar – Consumer and investor impacts of a weak loonie (July 2024) ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar ) ( How a Weaker Loonie Impacts Canadian Consumers and… | Morningstar )
  11. Morningstar – Investing in Canadian stocks with US exposure (Dec 2015) ( Four Canadian stocks to pick when the loonie falls | Morningstar ) ( Four Canadian stocks to pick when the loonie falls | Morningstar )
  12. RBC / Investing.com – Stock beneficiaries and gold miners (2024) (Weak loonie? These TSX stocks could gain strength, says RBC)

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